Canadian PM Mark Carney Visits China After Nearly Ten Years of Strained Relations

Mark Carney, Canada’s Prime Minister, is traveling to China on Tuesday for discussions on trade and international security.

The visit comes as Canada navigates uncertainty in its relationship with the United States, which is marked by a trade conflict and annexation rhetoric from President Donald Trump.

This represents the first trip to Beijing by a Canadian prime minister in nearly eight years, since 2017, and could signal an important turning point in bilateral relations as Canada explores alternative trade and security alliances.

The groundwork for Carney’s visit was laid last October during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea.

While that encounter didn’t produce major breakthroughs, it hinted at possibilities for strengthened ties following years of friction under Justin Trudeau‘s previous administration.

Related: Trump Vows To Deal With China, Mexico, And Canada Over Illegal Immigrants And Drug Smuggling

Relations had deteriorated significantly after Canada detained Huawei’s chief financial officer in 2018.

Observers anticipate tangible agreements—or at minimum, commitments to future deals—will emerge from this visit.

Canadian officials at senior levels indicated that Carney plans to sign several memoranda currently being negotiated.

According to Greg MacEachern, a former senior Liberal ministerial adviser, the trip is expected to produce substantive outcomes rather than symbolic gestures.

“When the Prime Minister is invited to China, it is not for window dressing,” he stated, noting that Washington will be watching closely.

“There’s a political risk this could upset President Trump, but Prime Minister Carney clearly wants to send the message that Canada is open for business. And the Canadian government has made the calculation that it’s worth it.”

Energy and Agriculture Trade on the Agenda

Potential agreements may encompass increased Canadian crude oil exports to China, based on information from a source familiar with the discussions.

Currently, Canada sends approximately 90% of its oil to the United States, but anticipated growth in U.S. oil purchases from Venezuela might reduce American demand for Canadian petroleum.

Senior Canadian officials indicated they expect advancement but not complete removal of Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola during this visit.

China has expressed interest in building greater mutual trust with Canada throughout the January 14-17 visit, according to statements from the Chinese foreign ministry.

“Both Canada and China want to signal their good intentions, so they each need to give away something,” said Lynette Ong, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto.

Last August, China imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties on canola imports from Canada, intensifying a trade dispute that had been ongoing for a year.

The conflict began when Ottawa placed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports. These duties have nearly wiped out all canola exports to China, which had been the primary market for Canadian canola.

Ong noted that the EV tariff was put in place during former U.S. President Joe Biden‘s administration, and the current strain in Canada-U.S. relations has made maintaining it less critical since alignment with Washington is no longer as high a priority for Ottawa.

After the U.S., China ranks as Canada’s second-largest trading partner.

Doug Ford, premier of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province and auto hub, urged Carney not to “back down,” saying the EV tariffs should only be lifted if China opens a manufacturing facility in Ontario.

Colin Hornby, head of the Manitoba farm group Keystone Agricultural Producers, said he did not expect an agreement to eliminate the canola tariffs during the trip but was optimistic something could happen in the coming weeks or months.

Security and Human Rights Considerations

Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, warned more cooperation with China in sectors like AI and critical minerals could jeopardize Canadian security, however.

“There are clear red lines not to be crossed,” she said.

Canada has raised objections in the past regarding human rights abuses in China, including the imprisonment of pro-democracy media figure Jimmy Lai, the undisclosed execution of four Canadian citizens in China last year, and previous meddling in Canadian elections.

Cheuk Kwan, co-chair of the Toronto Association for Democracy in China, said he hoped Canada would “not fall into the trap of appeasing China just to secure bilateral trade agreements.”

Two Canadian Members of Parliament said on Monday they were ending a trip to democratically governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, early this week ahead of Carney’s visit to China to avoid confusion with Canada’s foreign policy.

The decision by China to receive Carney at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, considered one of the country’s most prestigious government facilities, may represent a “charm offensive,” according to Joseph Torigian, an expert in Chinese politics at American University.

Torigian proposed that China might be seeking to improve its international standing following the U.S. seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month.

“The Chinese might make a case during bilateral meetings with Canada about how unreliable the U.S. is as a partner and how dangerous they are,” Torigian said.

“Whereas China is willing to help Canada expand its trade relationships outside of its hemisphere if the Canadians are willing to play ball.”